Patrick Mulcahy on Trump’s war on independent film
There is nothing remotely amusing about Donald Trump’s second term as US President. An angry narcissist who incites hatred, he and his enablers – to whom we should pay great attention – have set about turning America into exactly the sort of country that its detractors have described: self-interested, imperialist, and an exploiter of the marginalised, widening the gap between the rich and everybody else. “You hate me, I hate you, but we gotta do business” appears to be the President’s motto. The second Trump administration sought to consolidate its base amongst the lynch mob minority, targeting immigrants, removing guardrails, and, if not enabling, then not apologising for physical attacks against Democrats. Meanwhile, the American economy is tanking. Hundreds of thousands of people are being laid off. This is no longer about “making America great again”, a hollow slogan that propelled Trump to just about win the 2016 presidential election. Project 2025 is about the consolidation of an autocracy, exercising control over American citizens at the expense of what is currently termed democracy.
In this context, the attack on Hollywood and, more widely, California is not surprising. First, you ban books. Next, you silence journalists. Finally, you control visual entertainment. To get the public on side, and the second Trump administration is all about distraction, you weaponise the case for repatriating American jobs in the entertainment industry. Producers frequently film overseas not only for striking location opportunities but also to cut costs with local crews and to take advantage of tax credits. Many countries offer relief from Value Added Tax charged against a proportion of the film’s budget so that the tax paid to VAT-registered technicians and facilities is reclaimed or exempted. Some states within the US, like Georgia, also offer this, being a popular way to attract productions. You can imagine an administration wanting to hit productions filmed overseas with a punitive tax – most films are ostensibly made by limited liability companies who may receive funding from large studios or else sell the project to them later. So it is not inconceivable that productions that receive overseas tax relief may then have to pay a tax to the US government to get the end product screened domestically. The threat of this tax will provide a disincentive for US producers to film abroad.
However, we should not expect that the (arguably) well remunerated unionised workforce within Hollywood will get more work. The second Trump administration may pretend to be the producers’ friend by exempting them from the need to use unionised labour. So salaries will be reduced, and American talent will migrate to Europe in a manner not dissimilar to that seen during the McCarthy era. We are already seeing film personnel being reluctant to badmouth Trump, fearful of being targeted by the aforementioned lynch mob minority. Talent has been forced to play a waiting game.
I don’t think the second Trump administration will stop at “tariffs” on the film industry. It will almost certainly turn to content. The President’s ideas of movie stars are Mel Gibson, Vince Vaughn, Jon Voight and Sylvester Stallone. Don’t expect any romantic comedies. Hollywood films have always been a means to project values, and we should expect more war and espionage films focusing on binary opposition. The practice of “othering” non-American culture will go into overdrive. Hollywood cinema will almost be indistinguishable from Chinese mainstream films, which problematise the individual and celebrate collective sacrifice. I would not expect to see any more “Hunger Games” movies either.
For the second Trump administration to succeed, Americans have to believe that they can’t win; that democracy in a two-party system was always a sham. They will ask themselves: why can’t the US be more like China and Russia? You never hear about discontent in those countries. Never mind that their media is strictly controlled. The strong protest movement manifesting in “No Kings Day” and the like suggests that middle America, at least, will put up a good fight. For now, there are social media channels that allow them to organise. The Republican Party, for the most part, is hiding from its voters, present only to enact the second Trump administration’s directives. They are adhering to a “zero dissent” policy, which also involves perpetuating extreme falsehoods. However, films – whether made in the US or entirely overseas – can reflect this turbulent moment in US history and keep the truth alive.