Andy Gregg says Lebanon crisis is marked by complete Israeli impunity
The recent invasion by the Israeli army into Southern Lebanon and their cynical bombing of large parts of the country during a ceasefire in the wider Middle East undoubtedly amounts to war crimes. The Israelis are trying to keep their war in Lebanon out of Trump’s recent two-week “ceasefire”, and so far their continuing incursion has received very little condemnation or sanction by the international community despite the fact that currently well over a million civilians have been displaced and there have been well-attested attacks on schools, hospitals and other infrastructure which amount to crimes against humanity.
The Israelis have razed southern Lebanon to the ground in order to create a safe zone north of the Israeli border up to the Litani River, 20 miles inside Lebanon. This outrage has taken place despite the presence of international peacekeeping forces in the area and in spite of an agreement that the Lebanese Government should begin to start disarming Hezbollah. Carpet bombing and immense destruction have been carried out by the IDF in other areas of Lebanon where Hezbollah is strong, including the Bekaa Valley and the Dahiya suburb of the capital, Beirut. More recently, the Israelis have bombed areas of Beirut, which have historically had little evidence of support for Hezbollah, as a way of torpedoing the peace negotiations that are about to take place in Pakistan as part of the two-week (now open-ended) ceasefire between Iran and the US.
Israeli incursions and invasions into Lebanon do not have a record of great success. Indeed, Hezbollah was founded in 1982 as a direct result of a previous IDF invasion and war, which lasted till 2000. By then Hezbollah had fought the IDF to a standstill, resulting in eventual Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. Despite setbacks, Hezbollah has shown itself to be highly resilient in reestablishing its command structures and replenishing its supply of missiles and drones (though its reliance on supplies from Iran and until recently Syria may start to change this pattern). Constant military attacks by Israel have radicalised not just the Shia sections of the population but also numbers of Palestinian refugees and other parts of the community. Israel seems to have learnt nothing from this history of stoking up hatred and resistance, but it still feels the need to “mow the grass” regularly, as it has done in Gaza.
It has recently been observed that the destruction of southern Lebanon and other parts of the country follows on from the carpet bombing and complete destruction that Israel has carried out in Gaza since October 7th 2023. In fact, the recent Gaza destruction was actually based on an Israeli Army doctrine of systematic and disproportionate destruction known as the Dahiya doctrine that was developed by the IDF during the complete destruction of Dahiya, a suburb of Southern Beirut, in the Lebanon War of 2006. The doctrine now provides the blueprint for the recent genocidal destruction in Gaza as well as the more recent ethnic cleansing of southern Lebanon.
Whether Hezbollah will be able to reestablish itself depends to some extent on support from Iran (which may be more limited after Trump’s current “military operation”). However, the hatred that has resulted from these constant indiscriminate Israeli attacks makes a peaceful coexistence across the Israeli border with Lebanon impossible.
Lebanon has a history of instability, as well as political corruption and paralysis. The country is made up of a mosaic of different communities: Maronite and other Christian sects, Druze, Shia and Sunni Muslims and small Armenian and Kurdish communities. A large proportion of the population are refugees from Palestine or Syria, and the estimated five million Lebanese living in the country are dwarfed by the Lebanese diaspora which is estimated to number up to 12 Million across the world. The Government of the country has been riven with instability. Whilst the country has a strong private sector and resilient (if highly combative) communities, nevertheless the public sector is plagued with corruption and clientelism. There is collective dictatorship with militias often exercising murderous control over sections of the population with illegitimate stockpiles of armaments. Institutional failure is widespread, as is exemplified by the massive explosion in Beirut port in August 2020 caused by huge stocks of abandoned fertiliser. A history of sectarianism has riddled attempts to establish good governance.
By far the strongest militia is Hezbollah, which actually has more firepower and a stronger military commitment than the official Lebanese army itself. Indeed, some have called Hezbollah the “largest non-state military power in the world”. In 2021, Hezbollah claimed to have well over 100,000 trained fighters. Hezbollah formally entered Lebanese politics in 1992 and, since then, has built up a significant number of MPs. In August 2025, the Lebanese Parliament voted to disarm Hezbollah based on a US plan despite the MPs from Hezbollah and some allied parties and militias such as Amal voting against. It was never clear how the Lebanese army would ever achieve this aim.
Of course, it suits Israel to keep a weakened and fractured Lebanon on its northern border. It remains to be seen if Hezbollah can muster a significant fight back against Israel’s plans to occupy southern Lebanon and establish a safe zone that might also become part of a “Greater Israel” in the long run. One thing is clear – the constant Israeli attacks on its neighbours are unlikely to lead to peace and security for Israel. Instead each invasion and bombing outrage by the IDF will harbour hatred and resistance and sow dragon’s teeth across future generations.