Tom Miller reports London stays Labour (just) but more Green with Labour tribalism blocking progressive agreements while alienating young voters
The only redeeming feature of the Labour Party’s performance in London’s local May 7th elections is that results were worse elsewhere.
The map of the capital has shifted dramatically – what was once a red fortress surrounded by a few encroaching areas of Blue and Yellow has become an extraordinary mish-mash of colours not unlike the rest of the country.
Much like other areas, the elections saw Reform UK perform better than ever before, as the hard right continues its march through older and whiter working-class areas, taking control of their first Council in London in Havering. In mitigation, Havering is an unusual borough, as residents there probably feel, on average, more disconnected from the wider city than they do in any other borough, with many feeling a stronger spiritual connection to rural West Essex, and it is materially isolated in the sense that it lacks much of the transport infrastructure that its neighbouring boroughs take advantage of.
The Liberal Democrats also had a strong night, with mass tactical voting against the right taking place in South-Western boroughs, where those who have progressive and cosmopolitan leanings find themselves in a position of overlap and compromise with the large number of high earners, forming a localised social alliance of the sort seen more widely in England’s home counties.
Much more prominent, though, than Reform’s win or Lib Dem progress has been the vast upsurge in Green support in central and inner-East London, extending out to areas like my own former ward in the borderlands of inner and outer London. They gained control of Hackney, Lewisham and Waltham Forest, all areas with a younger electorate, and a high proportion of people who rely on and support active travel and local conservation.
In itself, this strongly underplays the growth in Green support. The party has found itself with its first ever councillors in many boroughs across the city, capitalising on Labour’s weakness in offering genuine economic solutions and constant weaselling on the issue of Israel’s outrageous behaviour towards Palestine and Palestinians, an issue which is important to many in London’s Muslim communities, but which also has far wider currency for many of the rest of us.
Labour has also dealt with the new threat to its left (well, largely to its left) extraordinarily badly. In my own borough of Brent, Labour members were suddenly forbidden any input into selecting their own candidates, which resulted in several largely diligent and collegiate Labour colleagues being deselected without any recourse for their ward members.
Many of these defected ahead of the local elections, leaving them as the first five Green councillors in Brent. With the local knowledge and campaigning experience they took from the Labour Party, they were able to double their number and take from Labour’s vote in marginal seats where they were not competing. Labour in Brent has gone from holding 49 out of 57 seats to now holding 26, losing the Council for the first time since 2010 to No Overall Control.
Labour messaging against the Greens concentrated on squeeze messaging (“Vote Labour or end up with Reform”), which was obviously a claim to ignore, and on the national attacks against the Greens, effectively implying that you would have to be mad or bad to vote for them. For many who were sitting on the fence, this will have been enough to persuade them to answer Labour’s literature by voting Green.
Despite having already found several ways to shoot itself in the foot in local struggles against the Greens, Labour is now set to top this off by forbidding local groups from entering into any arrangements with the Greens to ensure that Labour keeps control of councils, or prevents them from falling into the hands of the right.
Ironic, then, that despite all the leaflets, some people’s Labour votes will have the effect of getting them Reform UK.
Of course, this is also a terrible way to approach trying to win these voters back; Labour will essentially be telling them that we refuse to hear what they are trying to tell us, and in any event, we are not capable of being mature enough to cooperate with other parties or find points in common. A final misunderstanding and missed opportunity finishes off the scene. I’ll put it this way – for about 15 different reasons, I am very glad I did not wish to re-stand this year.
Whilst their party brings radical economic solutions that some in Labour will no doubt admire, Green Councillors will now find themselves challenged by London’s enormous homelessness problems and the gargantuan shortage of homes available for social and affordable rent. In opposition, London’s local Green Parties often build their reputation in fighting developments and regeneration projects, rarely supporting any building at all in their local areas.
Despite the sheen of radicalism, much like the Lib Dems, local Green parties in London function by offering a platform to loud voices or a veneer of anti-capitalism, rather than rooting itself in genuinely working-class concerns such as run-down housing estates or overcrowding and the grizzly detail and bureaucratic wrangling that comes with solving these problems.
Their approach will now be put to the test by a social base of Millennial and Generation Z voters who are acutely affected by the lack of genuinely affordable housing options and cramped conditions. Repurposing empty homes can make about half a percentage point’s worth of difference in most London boroughs, so Green representatives will find themselves truly tested by the problems their residents face.
Labour nationally has tough calls to make. It is now traditional in the UK for the press cycle to favour a far-right surge between general elections as a way of ratcheting up ideological pressure. This is even true when Conservative governments are in office, but doubly useful against Labour ones, who cannot do deals with Reform UK for them to stand down their candidates in favour of Brexit promises or other such trinkets.
We have all witnessed Labour spending the last two years talking and acting tough on immigration, and this appears only to have intensified the shift towards the far right among the electorate, not least in ex-industrial communities. Labour did a wonderful job of disrupting this shift in 2024, but two years later, it has become clear that no amount of concession or compromise with these political and social forces is likely to hold.
What is also missing from the debate is how much a general lack of enthusiasm, plus facing a loud opponent to its left, is working to split Labour’s vote. Post-election polling by Persuasion UK showed Labour holding only 33% of its 2024 vote (itself a remarkable statistic), with a whopping 24% opting to stay home. But quickly following this, we also lost 22% of our 2024 vote to the Greens, and appear not to want their support back. This is an enormous problem.
In contrast, Labour lost only 5% of its 2024 vote to Reform UK. The issue we have is not so much that Reform UK is winning voters from Labour, but that its bloc of support is keeping discipline, and is aided by likely Labour voters staying at home or voting Green.
London and Manchester have been particularly badly affected by the Green rise in support, though it is still challenged in areas which have now become traditional; Brighton, Bristol and Norwich, to name a few.
But London being at the peak does not mean that the rest of the iceberg does not exist. The massive bleed from Labour to non-voting or Green is damaging it all over the country, including in Labour/Reform marginals. It is far more costly than Reform’s own vote. As an issue, it is also far easier to fix. Labour’s domestic policies are not bad ones, though of course, much more ambition is needed to fix the country.
The real obstacles we face in London are the same as those in Wales or Northern England, namely that we cannot overcome a combination of dictatorial party management, complacent political strategy, and a tone which is constantly defensive and managerial.
To fix the immediate effects of this, Labour can start by not deliberately depressing our own bloc of support, showing our 2024 supporters that we respect them and want them with us, and start providing some hope that this country can be both a better place to live and a better actor in the world.