John Palmer on the pressures for growing alignment with the EU in the face of the Trump/Putin duopoly
The European Union confronts a series of major challenges – external and internal – which if not successfully handled could presage the beginning of the end of the whole post-Second World War project for a United Europe. Untangling the mess left behind by the UK walk-out of EU membership is, however, not really one of them.
Put bluntly, the EU and its member states regretted the High Dudgeon British departure – but felt that they could survive the long-threatened British departure without too much damage to themselves.
In the immediate aftermath of Brexit, the general view from the Baltic to the Mediterranean was that the Brits would quickly realise the seriousness of their blunder. At that point they would press for a bit-by-bit restoration of the benefits of membership without actually re-joining.
Thus, it came to pass. The most recent London/Brussels negotiations are just the latest stages in a process that has been taking place since Brexit. During this time, the UK became a second-class EU associate member.
This is expected to continue to the point that the UK will observe the EU regulatory principles of the Single Market and even the Customs Union, after which formal EU membership of these bodies will be precisely that – a formality.
Meanwhile, the dramatic changes in the United States’ world military and political role with the election of the authoritarian nationalist Presidency of Donald Trump only adds to the challenges facing both the EU and the UK.
The bizarre alliance between the Washington super-nationalist Trump and the Moscow authoritarian Putin is not actually all that bizarre. It appears to have been forged during the years when Trump was heavily engaged in business deals in Russia. Some suspect this may have led to a situation where Trump will not risk any falling out with Putin.
Too bad for the people of Ukraine struggling against a Putin-directed military invasion. They fear that Putin is setting the direction of travel for the Trump/Putin duumvirate.
These developments have already just about dissolved the entire functioning and structure of the NATO trans-Atlantic military alliance. The responsibility for European defence now lies almost exclusively with the governments of the EU.
No wonder Starmer-led Labour has been so determined to support and, as far as possible, to be a partner in the emerging European Union defence alliance. Not least because the EU may be the only serious source of finance for helping to pay for this.
All of which puts the latest series of EU/UK efforts to improve relations into context. The UK wants ever closer economic cooperation with the EU, likely to lead to compliance with the rules of the EU Single Market and Customs Union. Formal membership of both as a decision maker can wait.
The socialist left – across the UK countries and Europe – need to prepare a common strategy for responding to the potential dangers as well as opportunities in this new situation. Without that, the economic and social instability will only reinforce the growth of the far right across both the UK and the EU.
This is something increasingly recognised by at least some members of the other ‘official’ social democratic and socialist parties. They know the threat of the far right seeking to exploit the political and social turbulence will only grow. Does the left in the Labour Party agree with them?