Hungary has been a template for the far right and pro-Putin states over recent years. Andrew Ryder and Alíz Nagy argue Hungarians are taking steps to redirect their country as elections loom next year
In recent times, Viktor Orbán has been lauded by the radical right, including Donald Trump and his MAGA movement as a role model and champion of a new politics sweeping the world. Orbán seems to provide the model for the creation of authoritarian deep states. Hungary in the 1990s was seen as the role model for Central Eastern Europe with its strong embrace of NATO, the European Union and liberal democracy. Sadly, the hope and optimism of that time have faded, the growing gap between rich and poor and the huge social and economic costs of transition and economic crisis created a sense of despondency that Orbán was able to surf.
Orbán came to power for the second time in 2010 with a landslide victory propelled by an authoritarian and illiberal political agenda. Orbán’s huge parliamentary majority enabled him to erode and dismantle a number of constitutional safeguards, and in the process undermine the freedom of the press and media, the autonomy of the judiciary and systematically target civil society. Patronage and cronyism have created a “deep state”, reflected in the so-called National System of Cooperation (Nemzeti Együtműködesi Rendszer – NER). The NER was set up in 2010 by Orbán and has created a network of political and cultural institutions and private corporations closely aligned with Orbán and the Fidesz ruling party in Hungary, it has also established a system where oligarchs close to the government can win lucrative contracts and other favours. The European Parliament has denounced Hungary as a “hybrid regime of electoral autocracy”, i.e. a constitutional system in which elections occur, but respect for democratic norms and standards is absent.
As part of Orbán’s populist “culture war”, universities have been framed as boot camps and training grounds for liberal activists and woke agendas that challenge Orbán’s notions of rigid and deeply conservative identity, which has sought to stoke polarisation and division between the majority population and vulnerable minorities and perceived outsiders. To tame and control universities, Orbán created the Foundation programme, which it is claimed is a form of privatisation, uncoupling universities from state control. However, these Foundations represent a power grab and development of the “deep state” referred to earlier, as the Trustees appointed to oversee these Foundations have close ties to the Orbán regime. Such is the fear of the European Union about the autonomy of these Foundation universities that it was decided to preclude them from accessing Horizon funding and participating in Erasmus.
The end of Orbán could be in sight as he is currently behind in the polls for an election 12 months away. Orbán’s rival is Péter Magyar, a former member of Orbán’s inner circle, but according to his rhetoric, is more in the one nation tradition of conservatism, as, unlike Orbán, he says he respects the rule of law and is enthusiastic about the EU. The newly formed centre-right Tisza party led by Magyar, gained nearly thirty per cent of the vote in the 2024 European Parliament elections in Hungary and currently leads in the opinion polls. However, as in previous elections, Orbán is seeking to stir discord and division through scapegoating and demonising, framing, as in the past, perceived opponents as the ‘enemy within’. The focus of the attack for this election seems to be the LGBTQIA+ community.
The Hungarian parliament recently voted through a controversial constitutional amendment that codifies the government’s ban on Pride events, which also allows authorities to use facial recognition software to identify attenders of the annual Pride event and potentially fine them. The government has cited child protection concerns to justify the ban. Campaigners have denounced the ban as an outrageous assault on the right to assembly but also an attempt to stigmatise and demonise the LGBTQIA+ community to distract the public from the economic problems bedeviling Hungary and accusations against Orbán of corruption. The authors of this article were among the signatories of a petition condemning the Pride ban that attracted 1300 signatures, most of whom are based at Eötvös Loránd University, the last major and autonomous university in Hungary. The academics and students signing the petition felt they had a civic and moral duty to speak out.
The mood, as in Poland which recently ejected a radical right government, seems to be turning against demagoguery and Orbán as people are tired and disillusioned with the political trickery and orchestrated discord, especially with a failing economy, high inflation and a growing awareness of deep corruption. There are 12 months to go before the election. In a deeply unstable world the situation could change rapidly but there is a chance that Hungary rather than being a template for the radical right might become a roadmap for how to defeat it. We believe at the centre of this counter-movement should be respect for the rule of law and social justice but also a sense of courage that will lead people to take a stand. This counter-movement needs to avoid the tactics of populism by not relying on distorted polemic but instead on reason and factual argument. The counter-movement also needs to be inclusive by forming a broad coalition embracing progressives, centrists and conservatives who believe in democracy and standards of decency in public life. In a world in turmoil and polycrisis such a “coalition of the decent” may ultimately have the power to trump the demagogues. There are signs that an increasing number of Hungarians are willing to take steps to save their country from the abyss of dictatorship. A similar process appears to have started in the US against the audacious power grab of the second Trump presidency that appears to be aping Orbánism.
The Hungarian novelist György Konrád said, “You take a number of small steps which you believe are right, thinking maybe tomorrow somebody will treat this as a dangerous provocation. And then you wait. If there is no reaction, you take another step: Courage is only an accumulation of small steps”. Moments of courage and principle can be critical in defining a nation and its political and cultural trajectory. For some, notions of Britishness and or who they are were shaped by historical moments of courage and or principle, such as the rise of Chartism in the 1830s and 40s, the stand against fascism in World War Two and the founding of a National Health Service. Hungary has such moments, as reflected in the uprising against Habsburg imperial rule in 1848, the uprising against Communism in 1956 and the decision to be one of the first Communist states to embrace democracy. Hungary is again in a historic moment. A growing number seem to be willing to take courageous steps, but as Konrád notes, such action can lead to state retaliation, although of course this can ultimately weaken the authoritarian state as it highlights a lack of principle and civility. The year ahead in Hungary promises to be eventful.
Alíz Nagy and Andrew Ryder are academics and social justice campaigners in Hungary