Paul Salveson on the significance of Makerfield
By the time you read this, we’ll know the result of the Makerfield by-election, rightly described by media commentators as the most significant by-election for decades. And it’s happening, here, up North.
I want to make a few observations on the contest generally and some musings on its implications for transport. This assumes that Burnham does actually win. While it looks highly likely that he will, helped by Restore splitting the right-wing vote, there is absolutely no certainty about the outcome. My money is on Burnham getting in, possibly getting more votes than the combined Reform/Restore share, but let’s see what happens on June 18th. Many people who may otherwise have voted Green or Lib Dem will probably switch to Burnham.
The constituency of Makerfield (formed in 1983) is an interesting place, made up of some former mining towns: Ashton-in-Makerfield and Hindley, as well as some smaller communities such as Abram, with their own identities but a shared coal mining heritage. Although it’s in “Greater Manchester” (part of Wigan borough), it’s a very long way, politically and culturally, from Manchester itself. It is traditional Labour country, with the Labour vote very much taken for granted in the past. It would be wrong to imagine this was in any sense a “left-wing” Labour culture. It was very much a Labourist politics that went back generations, briefly disrupted by the 1984/5 Miners” Strike. Bickershaw Colliery, very close to the present-day constituency, supported the strike, although the Lancashire NUM leadership did not.
We need to ask why there should be any doubt at all that Labour would walk it in Makerfield. The idea that there is a contest between Labour and two right-wing parties, which makes the Tories look like cuddly Liberals, is remarkable. Part of it is the very same “Labour heartland” dilemma – being taken for granted – coupled with the rapid decline of traditional industries including coal, cotton and railways.
Following the announcement of Josh Simons’ resignation and Burnham’s candidature, I wondered what people in the area would think about it. I spoke to some good friends in Hindley who have been solid Labour supporters all their lives; their response was interesting. There was a sense that they were being used as pawns in a political game that they were not part of. They said they’d probably vote for Burnham, but there were clearly reservations. The media, and indeed Labour, have made out that Burnham is “one of them’, a local lad who has made good. But again, local identities matter a lot here, and Burnham isn’t really “one of them” despite being brought up quite near the constituency, in Culcheth – a pleasant and rather middle-class commuter village on the fringes of Warrington. It may only be a few miles from Hindley, but it’s a very long way in terms of local perceptions.
This isn’t intended to sound like I’m anti-Burnham. I very much hope he wins and becomes Labour leader and Prime Minister. His promise to bring in electoral reform is encouraging. He has been a good mayor for Greater Manchester in many respects – not least in transport – but he has not stopped the decline of once-proud towns like Bolton, Oldham and Wigan that have become seen as “satellites” of Manchester.
It is this very obvious decline of once-thriving industrial towns that has fuelled the rise of Reform. Their main policy in Bolton seems to be getting the town back into Lancashire – a sentiment which I have some sympathy for, though it really needs all of Greater Manchester being part of “Greater Lancashire’. Of course, another plank in Reform’s rather limited policy agenda is cutting down on immigration, though how local politicians can do anything about that has yet to be explained.
If, as seems likely, Burnham wins Makerfield, the inevitable by-election cannot be guaranteed to return a Labour mayor for Greater Manchester. While Manchester itself may well vote Labour, with a substantial Green swing, boroughs like Wigan, Bolton, Oldham, Rochdale and Salford could well go to Reform. Don’t get carried away with the Denton and Gorton result. A Reform mayor for Greater Manchester would risk rolling back some of the good things that Labour has achieved, particularly in public transport – not just retaining the £2 bus fare but also developing both the tram and local networks.
Let’s be positive, though. If Burnham wins Makerfield and then becomes Labour leader and Prime Minister, he’ll have a couple of years to win back those forgotten communities in places like Hindley, Ashton and Abram. I really don’t think Starmer has a hope in hell of doing that, so the sooner he goes, the better. But is Andy the new messiah? Let’s see – optimism of the will, pessimism of the intellect.